Another Look At the Vanishing Public School Student
I know this is something I first addressed back in mid-2024. But there’s delicious new data available, so it’s time for another look.
It seems we’re running out of kids in Canada. And it also seems like the public school systems (in most provinces) are somehow running out of students at an even faster rate. We’ll begin with some numbers.
In Ontario, as of the 2024-2025 school year, there were 29 percent fewer kids in grade one classrooms than there were in grade 12. If the current trend continues, by the time those grade one kids graduate high school in 2036, total province-wide enrollment will have dropped to barely half its 2015 levels.
Those enrollment numbers are roughly reflected in national statistics. As of July, 2025, according to Statistics Canada, there were around 14 percent more 17 year-olds in the population than 5 year-olds. Somehow, despite the fact that Canada’s population has grown by 16 percent between 2014 and 2025 - and despite the median age being at its lowest since 2012 - there are fewer and fewer younger people in the country. And even fewer of those are enrolling in public schools.
Private and independent school enrollments have certainly been climbing - increasing by 24.5 percent between 2007 and 2024:
At the same time, Statistics Canada data shows that the number of families home schooling their children has also been growing. In a reflection of trends in the U.S., COVID lock downs prompted a significant jump in homeschooling - which, at the time, was more or less what we were all doing anyway. But, confounding expectations, many families stuck with it long after schools reopened. And growth has clearly continued since. Here’s what the official numbers look like:
But the private school growth (accounting for approximately 114,000 more seats in 2024 than there were in 2008) - even when combined with the extra 45,000 homeschooling children - is still only a fraction of the total losses public schools have experienced just between 2012 and 2024. Those losses amount to around 720,000 across the country.
What’s going on here? The big story, of course, is the collapse of Canada’s natural birth rate to well below replacement levels. But that doesn’t explain why private schools and homeschooling have nevertheless been growing as much as they have.
I would argue that growing numbers of families are simply uninterested in the product public school systems are selling. Between frightening on-site violence, widespread mark inflation, dismal academic results, and heavily politicized indoctrination where curricula used to be, who can blame parents for seeking alternatives?
It would be interesting to see if we couldn’t find meaningful statistical relationships between failing public schools and dropping birth rates. Sadly, that’ll have to wait for a different time.
Here are some related posts:
The Hidden and Tragic Costs of Housing and Immigration Policies
We've discussed the housing crisis before. That would include the destabilizing combination of housing availability - in particular a weak supply of new construction - and the immigration-driven population growth.
From Decline to Durability: Is the Traditional Family Bouncing Back?
I’ve written in the past about the economic and social benefits of strong families. But it may be worth taking a quick look at the current status of marriage as an institution in Canada.
Do High-Rise Developments Depress Fertility Rates?
Canada’s sharp downward trend in fertility rates has appeared in this space before. For many reasons I see this as a looming crisis. Here, to refresh your memory, is how Canadian fertility rates per female have looked since 1991:The Audit is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscr…
Teachers have been after smaller class sizes for years.
Be careful what you wish for. It might come true.
That's a grim trend given the financial difficulties facing many of the larger public boards. Self inflicted, to some degree...but regardless, many of these problems are structural and deeply entrenched. Disembiggening their resource and real estate footprints to reflect shrinking enrolments will be a hideous process. Commence the shrieking of "won't somebody think of the children?"
That people are fleeing to alternatives (private and homeschooling) doesn't shock me at all. During my daughters' time in elementary and high school (they're now 18 and 22), it was clear the ship was beginning to list heavily. Between the hyper politicization of the curriculum and the disinterested and mediocre delivery of said curriculum (some teachers were amazing, most were not), the quality of the product left much to be desired. COVID threw gas on the fire and accelerated the rot. My 18 year-old is now a freshman at Queens, supposedly one of Canada's better post secondary institutions, and she's remarked that many of her classmates are barely literate and numerate. Many have never read entire books, or are flummoxed by basic "X+3=5" level algebra.