In a very real sense, it is impossible to ever obtain a fully accurate count of people in Canada By way of illustration, one would think that an accurate count of people in prison is quite achievable. It's not. It is impossible because every day, throughout the day, there are people being admitted to prison and people being discharged. Statistics Canada Justice Statistics recognizes this, and reports average daily counts, or average monthly counts. On any given day, there are around 28,000 people in prison in Canada. Imagine trying to count the total number of people in Canada. Even trying to determine the total population using average daily count, or average monthly count, presents challenges that cannot be overcome.
It's too bad we haven't yet found a method estimating population indepent of gov data. I was just thinking it might be opposite of other places. Canadians may spend only very little time in Canada. I suspect there are a million 'canadians' actually living abroad who are only Canadian for various benefits.
I understand that citizenship doesn't equal residency, but who knows what people put down on their tax's.
For the purposes of housing and economic planning, we're primarily interested in residents - and they're the ones would are more likely to eat regularly in Canada.
But the government population data may erroneously count non residents as residents. For example what if they don't file their tax's at all. 50k Lebanese canadians may have just won a free vacation in Canada because they're in war zone. Most of them will fly back in a month. Are they counted in the census?
The way I understand it, the primary data point feeding government numbers is the most recent census (which was in 2021). I believe they'll use many other metrics like visa applications and birth rates to extrapolate from the census, but that's the big number. I don't think all that many Lebanese residents would have shown up in the census.
Hmmmmmmmmmmm.......... To summarize: It's complicated! Really, it IS complicated.
So, what do we do? It seems to me that - as did you - it is necessary to use proxies for actual head counts. It further seems to me that each industry and special interest grouping will need to use different proxies as each proxy will have some bias in some way that makes it more or less useful to each industry and grouping.
Your use of chickens and eggs, for example. For many years, doctors warned against eating "too many" eggs due to worries about cholesterol; now, not so much or that is my understanding. As you say, going up one generation and using poultry head counts. Well, sometimes "the Colonel" and his imitators will be quite popular and sometimes not; there are always vegans and vegetarians who don't consume meat so, again, that metric is complicated.
And, again, I expect that each industry and interest group will find their own metric that is meaningful to them. But, perhaps not to others. All I know is that this damned country is getting increasingly crowded. Not a statistical measurement; totally anecdotal; but that is all I have.
In a very real sense, it is impossible to ever obtain a fully accurate count of people in Canada By way of illustration, one would think that an accurate count of people in prison is quite achievable. It's not. It is impossible because every day, throughout the day, there are people being admitted to prison and people being discharged. Statistics Canada Justice Statistics recognizes this, and reports average daily counts, or average monthly counts. On any given day, there are around 28,000 people in prison in Canada. Imagine trying to count the total number of people in Canada. Even trying to determine the total population using average daily count, or average monthly count, presents challenges that cannot be overcome.
It's too bad we haven't yet found a method estimating population indepent of gov data. I was just thinking it might be opposite of other places. Canadians may spend only very little time in Canada. I suspect there are a million 'canadians' actually living abroad who are only Canadian for various benefits.
I understand that citizenship doesn't equal residency, but who knows what people put down on their tax's.
For the purposes of housing and economic planning, we're primarily interested in residents - and they're the ones would are more likely to eat regularly in Canada.
But the government population data may erroneously count non residents as residents. For example what if they don't file their tax's at all. 50k Lebanese canadians may have just won a free vacation in Canada because they're in war zone. Most of them will fly back in a month. Are they counted in the census?
The way I understand it, the primary data point feeding government numbers is the most recent census (which was in 2021). I believe they'll use many other metrics like visa applications and birth rates to extrapolate from the census, but that's the big number. I don't think all that many Lebanese residents would have shown up in the census.
Hmmmmmmmmmmm.......... To summarize: It's complicated! Really, it IS complicated.
So, what do we do? It seems to me that - as did you - it is necessary to use proxies for actual head counts. It further seems to me that each industry and special interest grouping will need to use different proxies as each proxy will have some bias in some way that makes it more or less useful to each industry and grouping.
Your use of chickens and eggs, for example. For many years, doctors warned against eating "too many" eggs due to worries about cholesterol; now, not so much or that is my understanding. As you say, going up one generation and using poultry head counts. Well, sometimes "the Colonel" and his imitators will be quite popular and sometimes not; there are always vegans and vegetarians who don't consume meat so, again, that metric is complicated.
And, again, I expect that each industry and interest group will find their own metric that is meaningful to them. But, perhaps not to others. All I know is that this damned country is getting increasingly crowded. Not a statistical measurement; totally anecdotal; but that is all I have.
I had the same thoughts. Dietary habits change and vary amongst cultures. Apparently Gen Z favour plant-based diets and prefer beer over wine.
Interesting article David Clinton. Makes me realize Canada may have a larger undocumented demographic of immigrants than I realized.