What Does Mark Carney Really Think?

In just a few weeks, the Liberal leader's policy positions on just about everything have shifted

Watching Mark Carney lead the Liberals through this election has been weird. I mean, the decades of very public academic and professional thinking that distinguished Carney’s brand seem to have disappeared in a puff of smoke.

I first assumed that, besides his well-documented 180 degree turn on carbon tax (and gas pipelines?), there were just a couple of adjustments to better fit the political context. But based in particular on Carney’s ”It’s time to build” website, I now see that the changes go deeper. Much deeper.

The contrast is jarring. But it also raises the critical question: just who is Mark Carney, what does he actually believe, and how would he govern Canada?

Let’s explore the biggest changes one at a time.

Climate Policy: Carbon Tax vs. Incentives

Here’s how Carney was quoted in The Guardian:

"When people have made it clear they have that objective, and if there is public policy that translates those wishes into real action, a price on carbon, regulation of internal combustion engines for example, then financial markets – capitalism – will come up with the solutions to give people what they want."

But that sentiment went far beyond a single sentence in a single presentation. Carbon pricing has been the driving focus of much of Carney’s writing and thinking for years. Not only did Carney feel that such a tax was absolutely critical to the planet’s future, but he expressed absolute conviction that, if applied, it would surely work.

Then along came Carney’s 2025 climate policy document:

"The Consumer Carbon Tax isn’t working - it’s become too divisive. That’s why I’ll cancel it and replace it with incentives to reward people for greener choices."

Oops.

On a similar note, back in 2022, Carney was quoted in The Telegraph saying that fighting climate change will require a lot of economic pain:

"It's risky and it'll be disruptive but it can no longer be delayed." ​

However his current claims highlight his focus on delivering economic growth and stability.

Fiscal Policy: Caution vs. Investment-Fueled Growth

This change seems to have happened more gradually. As a central banker, Carney emphasized sustainable public finances and warned against excessive debt. For instance, in his testimony to the Senate banking committee in 2022, he said:

"In an environment where we have left the world of low-for-long interest rates (and) low volatility, in an environment where borrowing costs are going to be higher — in my judgment, higher not just in the short-term, but in the medium-term — fiscal discipline is imperative"

However, in his book Value(s) (and other climate-related discussions), he advocated for public investment to “crowd in” private capital for green transitions, suggesting a willingness to use fiscal policy strategically. He rarely detailed operational spending cuts, focusing instead on monetary policy and market signals.

Which brings us to Mark Carney version 2025:

"We will balance the operating budget in three years...while running a small capital deficit to catalyse private investment."

Internal Trade & Federal Power

Once upon a time, Carney advocated for cooperative federalism. As an example, he’s been quoted noting how Canada benefits from cooperative federalism and how regulatory harmonization should be a shared goal.

That was then. This is now:

"While it is preferable to work in close collaboration with the provinces...there may be circumstances where exercising [federal trade] powers could be necessary."

Immigration and Growth

This is a big one. Before: Immigration must happen and it’ll cure what ails us. Limits are for losers. Or at least that was the gist of Carney’s 2020 thinking on the UK economy post-Brexit:

"Even with a deal, the BoE said it now pencilled in trade frictions from the start of 2021. Lower immigration and weaker business investment would also weigh on the economy."

Or not:

"We will...cap immigration until it can be returned to a sustainable trend."

Regulatory Culture: Stability vs. Speed

Once upon a time, the hallmarks of good governance included careful and deliberate consideration. At all costs. At least, that’s how the old Mark Carney saw it in various speeches he delivered through the 2010’s.

Oh yeah? Well you and which army?

"A Mark Carney-led government will shift the focus of project review from ‘why’ to ‘how’... major projects will be reviewed in two years or less."

Other Changes

Housing is a significant new priority for Carney. And it’s not like Canada’s housing crisis is some recent development. Elevating housing to a cornerstone of economic policy reflects a shift toward domestic, tangible issues that contrasts with his prior macro-financial and global focus. The aggressive supply-side approach (doubling construction, cutting bureaucracy) suggests a more interventionist stance than his earlier regulatory tweaks to cool demand:

Mark Carney will supercharge Canada’s housing plan to tackle the affordability crisis and catch up to the needs of our growing population. We will take aggressive action to ensure we can build enough homes for Canadians now.

In living memory, Carney once advocated for quantitative easing (under at least some circumstances). But, under the long, dark shadow of our recent struggles with inflation, there’s been no evidence that he’s stuck with that position. In fact, considering how few serious economists and bankers still think of quantitative easing as a useful tool, I think it’s safe to assume that this is another significant shift.

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So which Mark Carney are we being offered here? We can be forgiven for wondering what he actually believes. And should he be elected, will he govern like Carney version 2025 or Carney version 2015?

Inquiring minds demand to know.