How Popular Is Alberta Secession Right Now?
A quick and dirty demographic study in two images
My recent post Is Canada’s Federation Fair? included suggestions that Albertans could be forgiven for resenting the way equalization payments seemed to reward provinces (Quebec) that chose not to exploit their natural resources at the expense of those (Alberta) that did.
So is it time for Albertans to play the secession card? Could such a threat create the conditions for either a better deal within confederation (a la Quebec in the 1970s) or a better life outside of Canada?
I don’t know. And I really don’t want to say anything foolish that’s certain to blow up in my face. But I do have thoughts on a closely related question: is there enough support for a separation movement within Alberta right now?
Well that depends on your perspective. Here’s a chart from Google Trends showing changes in Google searches in Alberta for the phrases “Alberta separation” and “Alberta secession” over the past 12 months. Tracking search traffic can provide a useful window into how people in a particular geographic region are thinking.
There’s been sustained interest - especially in the “separation” search term - and an obvious and dramatic leap of interest in the last few weeks. Does that mean that Alberta separation is actually a “thing” in Alberta’s public consciousness?
Well, we should remember that Google Trends data represents changes to search frequency. Which means that for numbers in the graphs to be meaningful, we always have to ask ourselves: “compared to what?”
So let’s map those search terms against something that (for better or for worse) might also have been occupying Albertans’ attention over the past months. This second chart adds searches for “Mark Carney” to the mix:
Considering how, when compared with interest in Mark Carney, search numbers for separation pretty much flatlined, we can safely conclude that there was never that much interest in the first place. Even if there were only, say, 100 searches a week for “separation” over the past year, seeing those numbers jump by just another 50 a week through the election would have produced results on the first chart.
But however many actual searches for separation there were, the numbers were consistently dwarfed by interest in Mark Carney. So whether Alberta separation is or is not a good idea, it seems likely that its time has not yet come.
There is core of support of perhaps 30% if Carney wins and depending on how soon he confirms his intentions of turning the screws on shutting down the Oil Patch or emasculating it by tying carbon capture to production, sentiment will grow particularly with a confrontational relationship with the governments of Alberta and Saskatchewan (where separatist sentiment is at least as high or higher). Both will likely try the notwithstanding clause to exert Quebec-like independence and whatever legal or constitutional tools are available in the process. North Eastern BC would likely want to join in as they are more married to the rest of the East slopes of the Rockies (sharing the same sedimentary basin and Calgary head offices) than to the Coastal Eloi in Victoria and the lower mainland.